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   CIB in a nutshell Method Bibliography ScenarioWizard CIB-Lab


This bibliography contains publicly available papers that either deal with the methodological aspects of CIB analysis (Section A) or report on applications of the CIB method in various fields of research (Section B). The list is based on personal communications about CIB-related publications, regular internet research, and the CIB-Lab's own publications. In spite of our efforts to cover the body of CIB publications comprehensively, the bibliography may be incomplete. References to missing literature are therefore welcome (=>Email).

A. Methodological publications

Schmidt-Scheele R. (2020): The Plausibility of Future Scenarios. Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning. Transcript Independent Academic Publishing, Bielefeld >>. See also: Scheele R. (2019): Applause for Scenarios!? An Explorative Study of ‘Plausibility’ as Assessment Criterion in Scenario Planning. Dissertation, University of Stuttgart.

Weimer-Jehle W., Vögele S., Hauser W., Kosow H., Poganietz W.-R., Prehofer S. (2020): Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches. Climatic Change. >>

Vögele S., Poganietz W.-R., Mayer P. (2019): How to deal with non-linear pathways towards energy futures. Concept and application of the cross-impact balance analysis. TATuP 29(3). >>

Kemp-Benedict E., Carlsen H., Karthaa S. (2019): Large-scale scenarios as ‘boundary conditions’: A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 143, 55-63. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.03.006. >>

Schweizer V., Scheele R., Kosow H. (2018): Practical poststructuralism for confronting wicked problems. 9th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. Fort Collins, Juni 2018. >>

Kunz P. (2018): Discussion of methodological extensions for Cross-Impact-Balance studies. STE preprint 01/2018, Forschungszentrum Jülich.

Scheele R., Kearney N.M., Kurniawan J.H., Schweizer V.J. (2018): What Scenarios Are You Missing? Poststructuralism for Deconstructing and Reconstructing Organizational Futures. In: Krämer H., Wenzel M.: How Organizations Manage the Future - Theoretical Perspectives and Empirical Insights. Springer International Publishing, chapter 8. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-74506-0_8 >>

Govorukha K., Kunz P., Mayer P. (2018): Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to facilitate implementation of the Cross-Impact Balance approach. 15th Symposium on Energy Innovation, February 14-16, 2018, Graz. DOI 10.3217/978-3-85125-584-3. >>

Biß K., Ernst A., Gillessen B., Gotzens F., Heinrichs H., Kunz P., Schumann D., Shamon H., Többen J., Vögele S., Hake J.-F. (2017): Multimethod Design for Generating Qualitative Energy Scenarios. STE Preprint 25/2017, Research Center Jülich. See also: Ernst A., Biß K., Shamon H., Schumann D., Heinrichs H. (2018): Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 127, 245-257.

Scheele R., Kosow H., Prehofer S. (2017): Context scenarios - a complement to model-based scenario analysis. Foundations and current issues [in German]. In: Tilebein, M. et al. (eds.) Digitale Welten: Neue Ansätze in der Wirtschafts- und Sozialkybernetik. Wirtschaftskybernetik und Systemanalyse Vol. 30, Berlin: Duncker & Humblot, 107-121. >>

Shojachaikar A. (2017): Beyond consistency: An alternative technique to investigarte inconsistent CIB scenarios. In: Saarimaa R., Wilenius M. (eds.): Futures of a complex world. Conference proceedings, 12.-13. June 2017, Turku, Finnland. Finland Futures Research Center FFRC eBook 2/2018.

Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2017): Consistency of societal framework assumptions - CIB experiences [in German]. In: Biemann K., Distelkamp M., Dittrich M., Dünnebeil F., Greiner B., Hirschnitz-Garbers M., Koca D., Kosow H., Lorenz U., Mellwig P., Neumann K., Meyer M., Schoer K., Sverdrup H., von Oehsen A., Weimer-Jehle W.: Sicherung der Konsistenz und Harmonisierung von Annahmen bei der kombinierten Modellierung von Ressourceninanspruchnahme und Treibhausgasemissionen. Umweltbundesamt Dokumentationen 04/2017, Dessau, p. 22-28. >>

Kosow H. (2016): The best of both worlds? An exploratory study on forms and effects of new qualitative-quantitative scenario methodologies. Dissertation, Universität Stuttgart. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kosow H., Naegler T., Poganietz W., Pregger T., Prehofer S., von Recklinghausen A., Schippl J., Voegele S. (2016): Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios. Energy 111, 956–970. DOI: 10.1016/ >>

Schweizer V.J., Kurniawan J.H. (2016): Systematically linking qualitative elements of scenarios across levels, scales, and sectors. Environmental Modelling & Software, 79 (Mai 2016), 322-333, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.014. >>

Kosow, H. (2015): New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios. Eur J Futures Res 3:16, DOI 10.1007/s40309-015-0077-6. >>

Weimer-Jehle, W. (2015): Cross-Impact Analyse [Cross-Impact Analysis, in German]. In: Niederberger, M./Wassermann, S. (eds.): Methoden der Experten- und Stakeholdereinbindung in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung [Methods of expert and stakeholder inclusion in social science research], Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag: 17-34.

Lloyd E.A., Schweizer V.J. (2014): Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research. Synthese, Vol. 191(10), 2049-2088. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S. (2013): Kontextszenarien - Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien [Context scenarios - a concept for addressing context uncertainty and context complexity in energy scenarios, in German]. TATuP 22(2), 27–36 >>

Kemp-Benedict E. (2012): Telling better stories - Strengthening the story in story and simulation. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 041004 >>

Kosow, H. (2011): Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), Seville (Spain), 12.-13.05. 2011 >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2011): Gesellschaftliche Kontextszenarien als Ausgangspunkt für modellgestützte Energieszenarien [Social Context Scenarios as a Starting Point for Model-Based Energy Scenarios, in German]. In: Dieckhoff C. et al. (Eds.): Energieszenarien - Konstruktion, Bewertung und Wirkung. KIT Scientific Publishing, Karlsruhe >>

Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Properties of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis. arXiv:0912.5352v1 [physics.soc-ph]. >>

Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Szenarienentwicklung mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse [Generating Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, in German]. In: Gausemeier J. (Ed.): Vorausschau und Technologieplanung. HNI-Verlagsschriftenreihe Vol. 265, Paderborn, 435-454.

Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Cross-Impact Balances - Applying pair interaction systems and multi-value Kauffman nets to multidisciplinary systems analysis. Physica A, 387:14, 3689-3700. >>

Weimer-Jehle W. (2006): Cross-Impact Balances: A System-Theoretical Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73:4, 334-361. >>

B. Reported CIB applications

in the fields of behaviour, biotechnology, climate change, education, energy, health, industry and services, information technologies, innovation, management, mobility/transport, politics, risk/security, societal change, sustainability, technology management, urban and regional planning, waste, water and working world.


Lambe F., Carlsen H., Jürisoo M., Weitz N., Atteridge A., Wanjiru H., Vulturius G. (2018): Understanding multi-level drivers of behaviour change - A Cross-impact Balance analysis of what influences the adoption of improved cookstoves in Kenya. SEI working paper. Stockholm Environment Institute. >>


Schneider M., Gill B. (2016): Biotechnology versus agroecology - Entrenchments and surprise at a 2030 forecast scenario workshop. Science and Public Policy, 43, 74-84. DOI:10.1093/scipol/scv021 >>

Climate change

Schweizer V.J. (2020): Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research. Climatic Change. >>

Schweizer V.J. (2019): Scenarios and Decision Support for Security and Conflict Risks in the Context of Climate Change. Current Climate Change Report 5,12-23. >>

Mitchell R.E. (2018): The Human Dimensions of Climate Risk in Africa's Low and Lower-Middle Income Countries. Master Thesis, University of Waterloo. >>

Drakes C., Laing T., Kemp-Benedict E., Cashman A. (2017): Caribbean Scenarios 2050 - CoLoCarSce Report. CERMES Technical Report No. 82. >>

Haraguchi M., Liu R., Randhawa J., Salz S., Schäfer S., Sharma M., Shifflett S.C., Suzuki A., Yuan Y. (2015): Human Intervention in the Earth's Climate - The Governance of Geoengineering in 2025+. Global Governance Futures. >>

Ruth M., Özgüna O., Wachsmuth J., Gößling-Reisemann S. (2015): Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany. Ecological Economics 111, 29–47. >>

Wachsmuth, J. (2015): Cross-sectoral integration in regional adaptation to climate change via participatory scenario development. Climatic Change 132, 387–400. DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1231-z >>

Schweizer V.J., O’Neill B.C. (2014) Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations. Climatic Change 122, 431–445 >>

Schweizer V.J., Bee B. (2013): Nested scenario meta-analyses to systematically address individual and societal consequences of climate change. Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects. Potsdam, May 27-30, 2013. >>

Wachsmuth, J. (2013): Developing three scenarios about possible framework conditions for Bremen-Oldenburg metropolitan region in Northwest Germany in the year 2050 [in German]. Report no. 22 of the project Nordwest2050 ( >>

Schweizer V.J., Kriegler E. (2012): Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 >>

Schweizer, V.J. (2010): Developing Useful Long-Term Energy Projections in the Face of Climate Change. Dissertation. Center for Climate and Energy Decision-Making. Carnegie Mellon University Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Pittsburgh, PA.


Omran E.S., Izadi S., Moradi S. Ghahrani N. (2019): Qualitative development scenario planning for medical sciences education in Iran. Res Dev Med Educ 8(2). doi: 10.15171/rdme.2019.0xx >>

Yaghoobi N., Dehghani M., Omidvar M. (2018): Foresight of Entrepreneurial University Using the Integrated Method of Processing Scenarios and Crossimpact Analysis (in Persian, abstract in English). Productivity Management. >>

Mphahlele M.I. (2012): Interactive Scenario Analysis Technique for Forecasting E-Skills Development. Dissertation. Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria (South Africa). >>

Vergara-Schmalbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Morelos Gómez J. (2012): Aplicación de la Planeación por Escenarios en Unidades Académicas: Caso Programa de Administración Industrial [Application of scenario planning in academic units: Industrial Management Program Case, in Spanish]. Escenarios 10(1), 40-48. >>


Broll R., Blumberg G., Weber C. (2020): Constructing Consistent Energy Scenarios using Cross Impact Matrices. House of Energy Markets & Finance, University of Duisburg-Essen. HEMF Working Paper No. 05/2020. >>

Poganietz W.-R., Weimer-Jehle W. (2020): Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’. Climatic Change. DOI:10.1007/s10584-020-02871-7. >>

Senkpiel C., Hauser W. (2020): Systemic Evaluation of the Effects of Regional Self-Supply Targets on the German Electricity System Using Consistent Scenarios and System Optimization. Energies, 13. DOI:10.3390/en13184695. >>

Norouzi N. (2019): The Iran of the next two decades - A scenario planning approach over the Iranian gas and oil industries by 2035. Majlesi Journal of Energy Management, 8, 27-40. >>

Göllinger T., Knauf J, (2019): Scenario analysis of a sectoral coupled municipal energy supply (in German). Institut für ökologische Betriebswirtschaft. Working paper no. 70, Siegen. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28548.68483. >>

Norouzi N., Fani M., Ziarani Z.K. (2019): The fall of oil age: A scenario planning approach over the last peak oil of human history by 2040. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering. >>

Schmidt-Scheele R., Bauknecht D., Poganietz W.-R., Seebach D., Timpe C., Weimer-Jehle W., Weiss A. (2019): Guiding motifs and storylines of the energy transition. How stakeholder positions can be systematically integrated into transition pathways (in German). TATuP 29(3). >>

Pregger T., Naegler T., Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Hauser W. (2019): Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition - lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building. Climatic Change. DOI:10.1007/s10584-019-02598-0 >>

Marzban E., Mohammadi M., Pourezzat A. (2018): Governance in the Field of Energy Distribution in Iran - Foresighting and Developing Policy Options (in Persian, abstract in English). Public Policy, 4, 9-26. >>

Görres J., Hahn R., Schrade J., Erhorn H., Friedrich M., Schmaus M., Magg C., Marathe S.D., Alcántara S., Sonnberger M., Wassermann S., Jüdes M., Beck R. (2018): Energy efficient city - SEE Stuttgart (in German). Report to the German Ministry for Education and Research, Stuttgart. >>

Venjakob J., Schüver D., Gröne M.-C. (2017): Guideline sustainable energy infrastructures - Subproject transformation and interlinkage of infrastructures [in German]. Project report "Energy Transition Ruhr", Wuppertal Institute. >>

Kunz P., Vögele S. (2017): Cross-Impact Balance as an Approach for the Development of Consistent Storylines for the European Energy Market. 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), June 6-9, 2017. >>

Brodecki L., Fahl U., Tomascheck J., Wiesmeth M., Gutekunst F., Siebenlist A., Salah A., Baumann M., Brethauer L., Horn R., Hauser W., Sonnberger M., León C., Pfenning U., O'Sullivan M. (2017): Using integrated energy systems modelling for analysing the potentials of energy autarky in Baden-Württemberg [in German]. Research report to the BWPLUS Programme of the Federal State of Baden-Württemberg. >>

Pruditsch N., Zöphel C. (2017): Scenarios for an European energy system - Challenges in the interdisciplinary development of consistent scenarios for international systems [in German]. UmweltWirtschaftsForum (uwf). DOI: 10.1007/s00550-017-0443-x. >>

Schmid E., Pechan A., Mehnert M., Eisenack, K. (2017): Imagine all these futures: On heterogeneous preferences and mental models in the German energy transition. Energy Research & Social Science 27, 45-56, DOI: >>

Regett A., Zeiselmair A., Wachinger K., Heller C. (2017): Merit order power grid expansion 2030. Part 1: Scenario analysis - possible future framework conditions for power grid expansion [in German]. Report, Research Center for Energy Economics (FfE). >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kopfmüller J., Naegler T., Poganietz W.-R., Pregger T., Rösch C., Scholz Y. (2017): Context scenarios - A concept for coping with context uncertainty and complexity and its applications in the Helmholtz Research Alliance ENERGY-TRANS [in German]. In: Jens Schippl, Armin Grunwald, Ortwin Renn (Eds.). Die Energiewende verstehen – orientieren – gestalten. Erkenntnisse aus der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, p. 257-94.

Vögele S., Hansen P., Poganietz W.-R., Prehofer S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2017): Scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach. Energy 120, 937-946. DOI: 10.1016/ >>

Shojachaikar A. (2016): Qualitative but systematic envisioning of socio-technical transitions: Using cross-impact balance method to construct future scenarios of transitions. International Sustainability Transitions Conference 6-9 September 2016, Wuppertal. >>

Senkpiel C., Shammugam S., Biener W., Saad Hussein N., Kost C., Kreifels N., Hauser W. (2016): Concept of evaluating chances and risks of grid autarky. 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), June 6-9, 2016, Porto (Portugal). DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2016.7521177. >>

Mansson A. (2016): Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies. Energy Strategy Reviews 13-14, 236-47. >>

Vögele S., Hansen P., Kuckshinrichs W., Schürmann K., Schenk O., Pesch T., Heinrichs H., Markewitz P. (2013): Konsistente Zukunftsbilder im Rahmen von Energieszenarien [Consistent images of the future within energy scenarios, in German]. Research Center Jülich, STE Research Report 3/2013. >>

Cheng H., Ferguson I., Guan T., Johnson T., Ma Y., Mao Z., Pence E., Wigand F. (2013): Energy governance outlook: Global scenarios and implications. Global Governance Futures. >>

Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Mehr als die Summe der einzelnen Teile - Konsistente Szenarien des Wärmekonsums als Reflexionsrahmen für Politik und Wissenschaft [More than the Sum of Its Parts. Consistent Scenarios for the Consumption of Heat Energy as a Common Reference Point for Policy and Science, in German], GAIA 21/4, 290–299

Vögele S. (2012): Entwicklung der Rahmenbedingungen für neue Energietechnologien [Development of framework assumptions for new energy technologies, in German}. Research Center Jülich, STE Research Report 4/2012.

Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Möglichkeitsräume des zukünftigen Konsums von Wärme [Future heat consumption - a contingency analysis, in German]. In: Gallego Carrera D., Renn O., Wassermann S., Weimer-Jehle W. (Eds.): Nachhaltige Nutzung von Wärmeenergie (Sustainable Heat Consumption). Springer-Vieweg, Heidelberg, Wiesbaden.

Aretz, A., Weimer-Jehle, W. (2004): Cross Impact Methode [Cross-impact method, in German], in: Der Beitrag der deutschen Stromwirtschaft zum europäischen Klimaschutz. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.

Förster, G., Weimer-Jehle, W. (2004): Cross-Impact Methode [Cross-Impact Method, in German]. In: Energiemodelle zum Klimaschutz in liberalisierten Energiemärkten - Die Rolle erneuerbarer Energieträger. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.

Förster G., Weimer-Jehle W. (2003): Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung [Scenarios of a liberalized electricity market, in German]. Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis, 12:(1). >>

Förster, G. (2002): Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung [Scenarios for a liberalized electricity market, in German]. Center for Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany. >>


Lageroodi M.R. (2018): Future Studies of Iran's Health Financing System in the Perspective (in Persian, abstract in English). Dissertation. Kerman University of Medical Sciences. >>

Hummel E. (2017): The complex phenomenon of nutritional behavior - capturing, depicting, and analyzing with different instruments for tackling complexity [in German]. Dissertation, University of Gießen. >>
Further information (MRI homepage, in German): >>

Deuschle J., Weimer-Jehle W. (2016): Übergewicht bei Kindern und Jugendlichen - Analyse eines Gesundheitsrisikos [Obesity in children and adolescents - Analyzing a health risk, in German]. In: Benighaus L., Renn O., Benighaus C. (eds.): Gesundheitsrisiken im gesellschaftlichen Diskurs [Health risks and social discourse, in German]. Bremen: EHV Academicpress: 66-98.

Hummel E., Hoffmann I. (2016): Complexity of Nutritional Behavior: Capturing and Depicting Its Interrelated Factors in a Cause-Effect Model. Ecology of Food and Nutrition, 55(3), 241-257. DOI: 10.1080/03670244.2015.1129325. >>
Further information (MRI homepage, in German): >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Deuschle J., Rehaag R. (2012): Familial and societal causes of juvenile obesity - a qualitative model on obesity development and prevention in socially disadvantaged children and adolescents. Journal of Public Health, 20(2), 111-124. >>

Industry and services

Sardesai S., Kippenberger J., Stute M. (2019): Whitepaper Scenario Planning for the Generation of Future Supply Chains. Fraunhofer IML, Dortmund. DOI: 10.24406/iml-n-566073. >>

Vögele S., Rübbelke D., Govorukha K., Grajewski M. (2019): Socio-technical scenarios for energy-intensive industries: the future of steel production in Germany. Climatic Change. >>

Taghvaei M., Hosseinekhah H. (2018): Tourism Development Planning Based on Future Studies and Scenario Case Study: Yasouj (in Persian, abstract in English). Tourism Planning and Development, 6, 8-30. DOI 10.22080/jtpd.2018.1762. >>

Sardesai S., Kamphues J., Parlings M. et al. (2018): Next generation technologies for networked Europe - Report on future scenarios generation. EU-programme Mapping the path to future supply chains, NEXT-NET project report D2.2. >>

Shirvani N.M., Bayat R. (2018): Developing Strategic Options for Policy Making in the Iranian Oil Industry based on Strategic Foresight (in persischer Sprache, Abstract in englisch). Public Policy, 4, 63-79. DOI: 10.22059/ppolicy.2018.66849. >>

Fathi M.R., Maleki M.H., Moghaddam H. (2018): Futures Investment and Financing of Rail Transportation Industry (Machinery and Equipment)(in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Management Futures Research, 29, 33-53. >>

Fathi M.R., Maleki M.H., Rezvani A.V. (2018): Future Study of Investment in the Housing Industry in Iran Using Scenario Plannung Approach and Cross-Impact Matrix (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Management Futures Research, 28, 11-28. >>

Stießel S., Berger A., Fernández Sanchis E.M., Ziegmann M. (2018): Methodology for the Evaluation of CO2-Based Syntheses by Coupling Steel Industry with Chemical Industry. Chemie Ingenieur Technik, 90(10). DOI: 10.1002/cite.201800030.

Rashid A.H., Khazaei S., Moghadam Z.M.V. (2017): Banking Industry's Future ahead with Scenario-based Planning Approach (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 8, 65-89. >>

Information technologies

Shakuri S., Bonyadi N.A. (2016): Scenario Planning in the Future of Technology in Application Software with Future Study Approach (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Technology Development Management, 3, 111-138. >>

Khan A., Pohle J., Lin R., Sandhu P., Oppenheim S., Shin T. (2015): Shared Responsibility - Towards more inclusive internet governance. Global Governance Futures. >>

Ehrhardt J. (2014): Realistische Entwicklungsszenarien einer digitalen und offenen Handelplattform für Cloud Services [Realistic scenarios of a digital and open trading platform for cloud services, in German]. Master thesis, Reutlingen University. >>

Abbassi P., Kaul M., Mohan V., Shen Y., Winkelman Z. (2013): Securing the net - Global governance in the digital domain. Global Governance Futures. >>


Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Fuchs G. (2010): Erstellung von Energie- und Innovations-Szenarien mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse: Internationalisierung von Innovationsstrategien im Bereich der Kohlekraftwerkstechnologie [Generating Energy- and Innovation-Scenarios using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis - Internationalization of Innovation Strategies for Coal Power Plant Technology, in German]. 11. Symposium Energieinnovation, TU Graz, 10.-12.02.2010. >>

Fuchs G., Fahl U., Pyka A., Staber U. Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Generating Innovation Scenarios using the Cross-Impact Methodology. Department of Economics, University of Bremen, Discussion-Papers Series No. 007-2008. >>

Weimer-Jehle W., Fuchs G. (2007): Generierung von Innovationsszenarien mit der Cross-Impact Methode [Generating innovation scenarios using the cross-impact method, in German], in: Innovation und moderne Energietechnik. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.


Aschenbrücker G., Geiger R. (2015): Die Cross-Impact Bilanzanalyse als Instrument der Früherkennung [Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis as an early warning tool, in German]. Controller Magazin, May/June 2015 Issue 3, 47-52. >>

Saeidpour S., Behboudi M.R., Ahmadi K.R. (2015): Future Research for Knowledge Management Strategies by Scenario Planning Approach (in Persian, abstact in English). Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 6, 173-202. >>

Vergara Schmallbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Duarte Acosta M. (2013): Aplication del Método Search para el Diseño de Escenarios Futuros en el Consultorio Empresarial de la Universidad de Cartagena (2012-2022) [Application of the method "Search" for Design of Future Scenarios in the Office Business Department at the University of Cartagena (2012-2022), in Spanish]. Prospectiva, Vol. 11(1), 40-49. DOI: >>

Mobility and transport

Ruesch M., Bohne S., Schmid T., Hegl P. Haefleli U., Arnold T., Fumasoli T. (2018): A 2050 Vision for Energy-efficient and CO2-free Urban Logistics. In: Taniguchi E., Thompson R.G. (2018): City Logistics 1. Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 147-167. See also: Haefeli U., Arnold T., Matti D. (2016): Scenarios 2050 - The Method and the Storys behind [in German]. Project report, Rapp-Trans AG, Interface GmbH, Institute for Transport Planning and Systems. >>

Kurniawan J.H. (2018): Discovering Alternative Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Transportation. 48th Annual Conference of the Urban Affairs Association, 4–7 April 2018, Toronto, Canada. >>

Seum S., Bieser J., Ehrenberger S., Kugler U. (2018): German and European Ground-Transport Emissions in three different scenarios until 2040. Transport Research Arena, TRA 2018, 16.-19. April 2018, Wien. >>
See also Winkler C., Seum S. (2018): Mobility scenarios 2040: Transport growth and greenhouse gas mitigation - How does that fit in? [in German] 26. Verkehrswissenschaftliche Tage, March 14-15, 2018, Dresden. >>

Knupfer M., Sprake D., Vagapov Y., Anuchin A. (2016): Cross-impact analysis of Vehicle-to-Grid technologies in the context of 2030. IX International Conference on Power Drives Systems (ICPDS), Perm (Russia). DOI: 10.1109/ICPDS.2016.7756682. >>

Seum S., Henning A., Plohr M., Özdemir E. D., Hepting M., Keimel H., Sanok S., Sausen R., Pregger T., Heinrichs M., Müller S., Winkler C., Neumann T., Seebach O., Matthias V., Vogel B. (2016): The DLR Transport and the Environment Project – Building competency for a sustainable mobility future. DLR-Report 2015-38, 2016, p. 192-198. >>


Ayandeban (2018): Iran Future Research Report 1397. [in Persian]. Ayandeban Futures Studies. >>

Chuvychkina I. (2017): Perspectives of the EU-Russia Energy Dialog - a scientific scenario analysis (in German). Dissertation. University of Bremen. >>

Ayandeban (2016): Future Scenarios Facing Iran in the Coming Year 1395 (March 2016 - March 2017) [in Persian, summary in English]. Ayandeban Iran Futures Studies. >>
Conference paper in English: Mahdi Mowlaei M., Talebian H., Talebian S., Gharari F., Mowlaei Z., Hassanpour H. (2016): Scenario Building for Iran Short-Time Future - Results of Iran Futures Studies Project. Finding Futures in Uncertainties. 6th International Postgraduate Conference, Departement of Applied Social Sciences, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, September 22-24, 2016. >>

Balthasar D., Bowen H., Brandi C., Hamm K., Haring-Smith W., Turner G., Wang Y., Xu J. (2013): Envisioning New Partnerships For Africa’s Future: Making Global Governance Work in a Post-2015 World. Global Governance Futures. >>

Risk and security

Asano T., El-Sayed A., Kaul K., Körner K., Liu W., Malik S., Nozoe M. (2015): The Future of Weaponized Unmanned Systems - Challenges and Opportunities. Global Governance Futures. >>

Kaukonen E. (2014): Pelastustoimen skenaariopäivitys [Rescue service scenarios, in Finnish]. Pelastusopisto - Tutkimusraportit 3/2014 [Reports of the Emergency Services College], Kuopio, Finnland. >>

Aschenbrücker, A., Löscher, M., Troppens, S. (2013), Scenario-based supply chain risk management to avoid drug shortages caused by external threats in the pharmaceutical supply chain, 20thEurOMA Conference, Dublin June 7-12, 2013. >>

Aschenbrücker, A., Löscher, M. (2013), Szenario-gestützte Identifikation von externer Bedrohungspotenzialen in der Medikamentenversorgungskette [Scenario-based identification of external threats to the pharmaceutical supply chain]. IPRI-Praxis No. 2, Stuttgart. => IPRI-Homepage

Societal change

Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Kosow H. (2011): Konsistente Rahmendaten für Modellierungen und Szenariobildung im Umweltbundesamt [Consistent framework assumptions informing model- and scenario-analysis at the German Federal Environment Agency, in German]. Expert's Report for the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), UBA-Texte 20/2011, Dessau-Roßlau. >>

Cabrera Méndez A.A., Puig López G., Valdez Alejandre F.J. (2010): Análisis al plan national de desarrollo - una visión prospectiva [Analysis of the national development plan: a prospective vision, in Spanish]. XV Congreso international de contaduría, administratión e informática, México. >>


Zimmermann T., Gößling-Reisemann S., Isenmann R. (2018): DelphiNE - Uncovering potentials to conserve resources in the non-ferrous metals industry using a Delphi-survey (in German). Report 116/2018 to the German Environment Agency (UBA), Dessau. >>

Musch A.-K., von Streit A. (2017): Scenarios, future demands, and visions - Results of a participative scenario construction in the model region of Oberland [in German]. INOLA Report no. 7, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich. >>

Saner D., Beretta C., Jäggi B., Juraske R., Stoessel F., Hellweg S. (2016): FoodPrints of households. Int J Life Cycle Assess 21, 654–663, DOI 10.1007/s11367-015-0924-5. The scenario construction is described in the Supplementary Material (p. 45). >>

Semberová, A. (2016): Quo vadis, Slovenská republika? Kontextové scenáre vývoja životného prostredia Slovenskej republiky (Quo vadis, Slovak Republic? Context scenarios of the environmental development in the Slovak Republic). Diploma thesis, Univerzita Karlova, Prague. >>. Appendix: >>. Summary in English: >>

Nichersu I., Nichersu I., Mierla M. (2015): Scientific foundations of measures for climat change adaption through adaptive ecosystem management (in Romanian, abstract in English). Buletinul AGIR nr. 4/2015. >>. See also: Nichersu I., Mierla M., Marin E., Trifanov C. (2013): Implementing local policies for case study sulina. Proceedings of the 10th Global Congress on ICM: Lessons Learned to Address New Challenges, EMECS 2013 - MEDCOAST 2013 Joint Conference. Vol. 1, p. 47-58. October 30 - November 3, 2013, Marmaris, Turkey.

Kemp-Benedict E., de Jong W., Pacheco P. (2014): Forest futures: Linking global paths to local conditions. In Katila P., Galloway G., de Jong W., Pacheco P., Mery G. (eds.): Forest under pressure - Local responses to global issues. Part IV - Possible future pathways. IUFRO World Series Vol. 32. >>

Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): A normative-functional concept of sustainability and its indicators. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 9:4, 291-317.

Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2007): Leitbild Nachhaltigkeit - Eine normativ-funktionale Konzeption und ihre Umsetzung [Model Sustainability - A normative-functional concept and its implementation, in German]. VS-Verlag, Wiesbaden, Germany. >>

Technology management

Lee H., Geum Y. (2017): Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP. Technology Forecasting & Social Change 117, 12-24. DOI: >>

Urban and regional planning

Jenssen T. (2020): Is Green Infrastructure a Game Changer for Sustainable Regional Development? A Scenario Approach for Stuttgart Region. Proceedings of the REAL CORP 2020 conference "Shaping Urban Change". 15.-18. September 2020, Aachen (Germany). >>

Varsi H., Ghasemy M.R. (2019): Regional development planning based on methods of analysis cross-impact and CIB (Case study: Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Province)(in Persian, abstract in English). Human Geography Research Quaterly. DOI 10.22059/jhgr.2019.229931.1007430. >>

Mousavi M.N. (2018): Scenario Development Affecting Islamic-Iranian Progress with Regional Plannung Approach (Case Study: Western Azerbaijan)(in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Regional Plannung, 7, 51-64. >>

Taleshi M., Afrakhteh H., Nejad M.A. (2017): Analysis of the Factors Affecting Changes in Land Cover Patterns in Rural Districts in East of Guilan Province (Iran) for Foresight. Review of Environment and Earth Sciences 4, 51-65, DOI: 10.18488/journal.80.2017.42.51.65. >>

Nedae T.S. (2017): Application of Strategic Foresight Methodology in Spatial Development Plannung. Case Study: Karaj Urban Region Scenario Writing (in Persian, abstract in Englis h). Journal of Architecture and Urban Planning, 10, 23-48. >>

Heydari A., Rahnama M.R., Ajza S.M., Kharazmi (2016): Analysis of the Spatial Changes of Urban Environment in the Mashhad Metropolis Using the Natural Step Future Study Approach (in Persian, abstract in English). Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 6, 1-19. >>

Vergara-Schmalbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Morelos Gómez J. (2014): La planeación por escenarios aplicada sobre políticas urbanas: El caso del mercado central de Cartagena (Columbia) [Planning through scenarios implemented for urban policy: Central market case in Cartagena (Columbia), in Spanish]. Rev. fac. cienc. econ. Vol XXII(1), Enero-Junio 2014, 23-33. >>


Zhang Y. (2014): Strategic scenario study on international cooperation of e-waste management and metal recycling. Master thesis, ETH Zürich, University Graz. >>

Meylan G., Seidl R., Spoerri A. (2013): Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part I: Scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 74, 8-19. >>

Meylan G. (2013): Integrating Stakeholder Perspectives into Policy Support of Municipal Solid Waste Management. Dissertation, ETH Zürich. >>

Saner D., Blumer Y.B., Lang D.J., Koehler A. (2011): Scenarios for the implementation of EU waste legislation at national level and their consequences for emissions from municipal waste incineration. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 57, 67–77. >>


León C., Kosow H. (2019): Water scarcity in megacities - the example of Lima [in German]. In: Lozán J.L., Breckle S.-W., Kuttler W., Matzarakis A. (eds.). Warnsignal Klima: Die Städte. 191-196. University of Hamburg. >>

Schütze M., Seidel J., Chamorro A., León C. (2018): Integrated modelling of a megacity water system – The application of a transdisciplinary approach to the Lima metropolitan area. Journal of Hydrology 573, 983-993. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.03.045. >>

Jalalian H., Azipour F., Mehdizadeh H., Alibeygi J. (2018): Foresight on the Effects of Implementation of Water Transfer from the Sirvan River (the Arid Areas Project) on the Lacation-Spatial Changes in Mehran County (Iran) (in Persian, abstract in english). Journal of Management Futures Research, 29, 1-18. >>

Castillo Campos J. J. (2017): Análisis del impacto socioeconómico ante la apropación o no de una ley general de aguas con enfoque de derecho humano, El Salvador 2006-2017. Universidad Centroamericana "José Simeón Cañas", Antiguo Cuscatlán, El Salvador. >>

Slawson D. (2015): A qualitative cross-impact balance analysis of the hydrological impacts of land use change on channel morphology and the provision of stream channel services. Proceedings of the International Conference on River and Stream Restoration - Novel Approaches to Assess and Rehabilitate Modified Rivers. June 30 - July 2, 2015, Wageningen, The Netherlands, p. 350-354. >>

Assimacopoulos D., Kampragou E., Andreu J., Bifulco C., de Carli A., De Stefano L., Dias S. Gudmundsson L., Haro-Monteagudo D., Musolino D., Paredes-Arquiola J., Rego F., Seidl I., Solera A., Urquijo J., van Lanen H., Wolters W. (2014): Future drought impact and vulnerability - case study scale. EU project DROUGHT - R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing). Technical report no. 20, p. 17-22. >>

Miranda Sara L., Baud I. (2014): Knowledge-building in adaption management: concertacion processes in transforming Lima water and climate change governance. Environment & Urbanization, Vol. 26(2):505-524. DOI 10.1177/0956247814539231 >>

Uraiwong P. (2013): Failure analysis of malfunction water resources project in the Northeastern Thailand - Integrated mental models and project life cycle approach. Kochi University of Technology, Japan. >>

Kosow H., León C., Schütze M. (2013): Escenarios para el futuro - Lima y Callao 2040. Escenarios CIB, storylines & simulacin LiWatool [Scenarios for the future of Lima and Callao 2040. CIB scenarios, storylines and LiWatool simulations, in Spanish]. Scenario brochure of the Liwa project ( >>

Baltodano Fuentes A. (2012): Insumos para la definición de estrategias de gestión del recurso hídrico en zonas vulnerables a cambio climático: Percepciones y escenarios de iso del agua en Guanacaste, Costa Rica [Inputs for strategy design on water resource management in vulnerable areas to climate change: Perceptions and scenarios on water use in Guanacaste, Costa Rica]. Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación Y Enseñanza (CATIE), Turrialba, Costa Rica. >>

John S. (2009): Bewertungen der Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Abwasserbetriebe Bautzen mit Hilfe der Szenarioanalyse [Using Scenario Analysis for Assessing the Impacts of Demographic Change on the Wastewater Management Authorities in Bautzen, in German]. Dresdner Beiträge zur Lehre der betrieblichen Umweltökonomie 34/09, Universität Dresden. >>

Working world

Centre for Workforce Intelligence (2014): Scenario generation - Enhancing scenario generation and quantification. CfWI technical paper series no. 7. >>

Cabrera Méndez A.A., Puig López G. (2012): Análisis prospectivo de las expectativas de Calidad de Vida en el Trabajo [Prospective analysis of expectations about the quality of life at work, in Spanish]. 3er Congreso Internacional de Contaduria, Administración e Informática Administrativa. Filosofía de la Organización. Morelia, Michoacán Mexico, 29 y 30 de Noviembre 2012. >>

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